Fourth Month Revenue Slows Down a Bit, Still Strong
October 30, 2018
The Utah State Tax Commission released its TC-23 revenue report for the first four months of FY 2019 today. The report, as interpreted on our monthly revenue snapshot, shows that growth slowed from the third to the fourth month, from 13.8% to 11.2%. The current growth rate puts our estimated collections range above the projected totals for the year. Combined General and Education Fund revenue grew by 11.2% in the first four months, compared with expected growth of 5.7%. If one adjusts the starting point for Utah’s $252 million FY 2018 revenue surplus, tax collections would need grow by only 1.9% for the year in order to meet expectations. Growth to date is most pronounced in the Education Fund, where first quarter collections approached an 12.9% year-over-year growth rate. Much of this came in corporate income taxes. We believe much of that growth is associated with federal tax reform. Such a growth rate is not sustainable in the long-term. Gas and other fuel taxes met expectations at $202 million through the first four quarters. For more, read our monthly revenue snapshot, here.