In July we covered the Statewide Master Plan, a guide for state office space planning and investments. In that post, it was discussed how both the 2023 and 2024 General Sessions contingently put money towards the Plan, if certain revenue collections materialized. The shortfall in FY 2023 resulted in a rescinded $125.0 million appropriation. During the 2024 General Session, $100.0 million was appropriated for the plan, similarly contingent on the outcome of FY 2024.
The July Revenue Snapshot shows the preliminary FY 2024 yearend collections compared to forecasted revenues (which is what legislators use to budget). Based on current revenues to the General and Income Tax Funds, collections are $39.2 million below the forecast. When including the Transportation Fund, this deficit increases to $61.2 million. As indicated in the report title, these numbers are preliminary and will change when outstanding transfers are made between now and the final report in October. For instance, the current report includes an estimate for liquor store profits (which impact the General Fund), however the actual yearend closeout may differ. While October’s numbers may be adjusted up or down, the general direction of collections can be understood. Thankfully Legislators have padded the current budget with a cushion capable of absorbing the final impact.
Tight budget years underscore the importance of interim review by Appropriations Subcommittees. Each year, every subcommittee examines 20% of their budgets in the Accountable Budget Process (ABP), allowing a 5-year cycle to analyze the entire state budget. While many budget adjustments are made during the General Session, 45 days rarely provides enough time to do the deep dives necessary to ensure efficient use of taxpayer dollars. The ABP provides an extended timeframe to tackle difficult questions about ongoing funding included in agency base budgets, performance measures, fee revenues and more.
Generally speaking, a deficit in the current budget year amounts to a lower base and adjusts the starting point for the new fiscal year. However, revenue projections will be updated in the regular consensus process this fall and adopted in December by the Executive Appropriations Committee ahead of the General Session. Also in December, Legislative Economists will publish their Long Term Budget report, one of the products in a triennial cycle that works to improve the long term fiscal health of the state. While the Legislature can’t control the economy, they can utilize budget strategies to make the state resilient to a suite of economic scenarios.