Federal Stimulus Appears to Band-Aid Revenues through close of Fiscal Year 2020

July 23, 2020

The preliminary TC-23 Revenue Summary Report for twelve months of FY 2020 was released by the Tax Commission Thursday, July 16th, along with the Revenue Snapshot report from the Office of the Legislative Fiscal Analyst (LFA) and the Governor’s Office and Management and Budget (GOMB). The TC-23 is preliminary in that it will be modified in the next few months to include final adjustments made at year-end closing. The targets reflected in the Revenue Snapshot reflect adjusted expectations due to the pandemic as well as delayed income tax collections.

Sales and Use Tax, a primary revenue source to the General Fund, rebounded during the month of June. In contrast to collections from April and May, June represented the largest year-over-year growth for any single period of the fiscal year. This increase may be due to the influences of pent-up demand, federal stimulus actions, and collections of online sales in the wake of reduced foot traffic to stores.

As the Education Fund awaits final income tax collections, preliminary figures paint a slightly more optimistic picture than was originally anticipated due to pandemic-associated reductions in employment. The Education Fund reached $4.4 billion at the time of reporting; this figure is expected to increase as final collections and year-end adjustments are made.

The unprecedented circumstances of COVID-19 are further complicated by the influence of federal stimulus packages, making economic forecasts very challenging. Despite this, Education Fund as well as General Fund collections are within the FY 2020 target range projected in June by LFA and GOMB analysts. Fiscal Year 2021 revenue performance remains extremely uncertain due to the unknowns surrounding the income tax filing delay and future of federal economic stimulus.

The reports referenced in this post are available at the links below:
Year End Revenue Snapshot FY 2020
TC-23 Revenue Summary (Year End, FY 2020)