2021 Filing Delay Interferes with Revenue Comparisons

May 18, 2022

On Monday, May 16th, 2022, the Tax Commission released its monthly TC-23 Revenue Summary Report jointly with the monthly Revenue Snapshot produced by the Legislative Fiscal Analyst and Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget. Through April, collections to the General and Education funds exceeded forecasts by 25.1%, outpacing FY 2021 by 25.7%. 

A significant driver of the change in growth between last month’s report and this latest report are collections to the Education Fund. Income taxes resumed their normal April 15th deadline this year. Last year, the filing deadline was delayed until May 15th, meaning that a year-over-year (YoY) comparison would be better drawn after next month’s collections.

General Fund performance continues to surpass expectations, posting a 19.8% growth rate over FY 2021. High performers for the General Fund include State Sales Tax (up 19.3% YoY) and Oil and Gas Severance Tax (515.7% growth). Current Oil and Gas Severance performance represents the highest collections for severance tax since 2015.

Persistent inflation explains some of the difference between the forecast and collections for the General and Education Funds. While a nearly 9% YoY inflation rate for the Intermountain-region drives increased revenue, it also increases state government costs and presents a risk to the economy. This and other economic headwinds including supply chain disruptions and stock market volatility, coupled with last year’s filing deadline, make a moderation of collections likely in the near future.

The Transportation Fund posted a YoY growth rate of 3.7%, down from 4.9% last month. This may represent consumer reaction to lingering high prices at the pump; it’s difficult to say how consumer behavior may change heading into the summer travel season.

The reports referenced in this post are available at the links below:
May Revenue Snapshot (FY 2022)
Tax Commission Revenue Summary (Period 10, FY 2022)
Revenue Publications Archive