Revenue Surplus Sets the Stage for Tax Reform

October 28, 2019

The year-end numbers are in

In Fiscal Year 2019, the revenue surplus to the education fund was $134 million. After adjustments (such as putting money in the rainy-day fund), the available balance is $107 million. The General Fund, supported mostly by the sales tax, ended the year at a deficit of $38 million, which was reduced to a $22 million deficit after adjustments. Adjustments to the General Fund include balances which were left unspent by agencies during the fiscal year. The Transportation Fund, furnished by motor fuel tax, diesel tax, and registration fees, among others, ended the year at $6 million above the target.

For the full summary of Fiscal Year 2019: click here.

A decent start to the new fiscal year

The aggregated total revenue amongst all funds is on track with the unadjusted projection made last February, at a year-over-year (YoY) growth rate of 3.6% (the current target is 3.5%). After the Governor releases his budget proposal in December, revenue targets will be adjusted for the remainder of the year. As a note, revenue collections are typically volatile during the first half of any given fiscal year; because of this, caution should be exercised when interpreting these early-year revenue figures.

Comparable with Fiscal Year 2019, the revenue postings to the General Fund are roughly 2% below the current target, the Education Fund is approximately 1% above first quarter projections, and the Transportation Fund is performing about 3% above target. The growth in the Transportation Fund is being spurred largely by sources other than the Motor Fuel Tax, which showed a negative growth rate of 2% during the first three months of the fiscal year.

For the September report: click here.