Revenues Still Merry, and Fiscal Reserves Appear Bright

December 16, 2022

On December 15th, 2022 the Tax Commission released their revenue summary through the first five months of the fiscal year. Along with that summary, the Legislative Fiscal Analyst and Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget released their monthly Revenue Snapshot, detailing collections in comparison to the consensus forecast. Through November, revenues to all state funds totaled 8.2 percent growth over the same period in the previous fiscal year; with General Fund showing the most momentum at 14.9 percent year-over-year (YoY) growth and the Transportation Fund showing the least, posting a 0.3 percent YoY increase.

It’s important to consider that December’s report captures collections from November, for sales and wages that took place in October. Further, depending on the tax type, collections can lag economic activity by up to four months. So, while it seems that everyone’s Christmas tree has been up since November 1st, it may be spring before the full impact of the holiday season is reflected in state collections.

Top performers for the General Fund include Sales Tax (up 12.1 percent over FY 2022) and Oil and Gas Severance Tax (up 107.1 percent YoY). Mirroring last month, the Income Tax Fund/Uniform School Fund has been primarily driven by individual income tax collections (up 9.7 percent over last December), while Corporate income tax has slowed when compared to FY 2022’s above trend collections (-29.3 percent YoY).

On Tuesday, the Executive Appropriations Committee recognized the state’s FY 2022 General and Income Tax budget surplus of $1.25 billion, and adopted revenue estimates of $11.6 billion for FY 2023 (an increase of 1.1 percent YoY) and $11.8 billion for FY 2024 (an increase of 1.3 percent YoY). The most recent Revenue Snapshot reflects these updated estimates and associated revenue targets. Legislative Economists also presented the results of their annual Stress Testing Analysis, examining budget reserves. Stress testing occurs in a three year cycle, with the goal of helping Legislators determine the state’s financial risk under various economic scenarios. A complete look at stress testing will be published on later this month. 

The reports referenced in this post are available at the links below:
December Revenue Snapshot (FY 2023)
Tax Commission Revenue Summary (Period 5, FY 2023)
Revenue Publications Archive