Spring Brings Strong Forecasts and Updated Collections

March 14, 2022

Monday, March 14th, the Tax Commission released its Revenue Summary report (TC-23) concurrent with the monthly Revenue Snapshot produced by the Legislative Fiscal Analyst (LFA) and Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget (GOPB). Both reports detail tax revenue through March and contrast those collections to last year’s receipts (TC-23) and predicted state revenue (Revenue Snapshot). Through eight months of the fiscal year, collections for all sources are up 7.5% over FY 2021 and up 3.1% for the General, Education and Transportation Funds combined. 

In late February, the Tax Commission, GOPB and LFA updated consensus revenue estimates through the end of the current fiscal year as well as for FY 2023. These revised estimates increased expected collections by $435.7 million, including $127.8 million to the General Fund and $304.3 million to the Education Fund. Top performers to the General Fund thus far in FY22 include State Sales Tax (up 20% in FY 2021) and Oil and Gas Severance Tax (up 695%). Similarly, sources to the Education Fund with notable growth include Corporate Tax (up 30.1% over FY 2021), Mineral Production Tax Withholding (up 179%).

On the outset of the fourth fiscal quarter, FY 2022 looks to be another growth year for the Utah economy. However, one should note that recent international conflicts could negatively impact collections through the end of the year. Headwinds include market volatility, increased fuel prices, consumer wariness, and of course, inflation. Further, trade sanctions have the potential to effect corporate profits and GDP growth.

The reports referenced in this post are available at the links below:
March Revenue Snapshot (FY 2022)
Tax Commission Revenue Summary (Period 8, FY 2022)