State Revenue Remains Strong but Caution Encouraged

December 3, 2018

The Executive Appropriations Committee adopted revised revenue estimates for FY 2019 and new estimates for FY 2020.  When combined with the year-end surplus from FY 2018 and after adjusting for above trend revenue, available revenue is expected to be $646 million one-time and $675 million ongoing.  Details on available revenue can be found online. Economic Indicators remain strong.  Both General Fund and Education Fund exhibit strong growth largely due to income tax and retail sales tax collections.  The current growth rates for Education Fund at 12.9% and General Fund at 7.1% are not historically sustainable.  Wage growth is currently estimated at 5.6% and taxable sales are estimated at 6.0% growth and as the largest contributors to the funds above are well below current collections. As a state, the last time we saw collection rates this high was during the 2006-2007 business cycle.  If the current expansion lasts another six months we will be in the longest expansion in the modern era.  Let’s not forget, all good things come to an end.