Blog Roll (Default)

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Federal Intervention Drives Unpredicted Growth in Preliminary FY 2021 Year-End Tax Collections

According to the Utah State Tax Commission’s preliminary 2021 fiscal year-end TC-23 revenue summary and an accompanying Revenue Snapshot from the Office of the Legislative Fiscal Analyst and the Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget, preliminary data show total state revenues up 30.5 percent at the end of FY 2021 compared to FY 2020. This […]

Economists Warn of Inflationary Pressure as Surplus Trickles In

On Monday, June 14th, the Tax Commission released their TC-23 revenue summary, detailing collections through period 11 of the 2021 Fiscal Year, along with the Revenue Snapshot produced by the Legislative Fiscal Analyst and Governor’s Office economists. In stark contrast to June of 2020, when the legislature passed appropriations bills reducing ongoing budgets, it appears […]

Sales Tax Exceeds Expectations, Income Tax Still Boosted from 2020 Filings

On May 14th, the Legislative Fiscal Analyst and Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget released their Revenue Snapshot summary, based on the Tax Commission’s TC-23 revenue summary for May of 2021. Growth to all state funds slightly exceeded projections, posting a 28.3% growth rate through 10 months of the Fiscal Year (FY). From all sources, […]

What’s in Store for the 2021 First Special Session?

On Monday, May 10th, 2021 the United States Treasury released additional guidance related to the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA). While there are still many unknowns, we now know: 1. Utah will receive its state allocation in two 50 percent tranches, with half arriving this May and the remaining in May 2022. 2. Which industries […]

Revenue through Third Quarter Lags Projections

Utah’s General and Education Fund revenue collections for the first nine months of fiscal year 2021 slightly lag projected full-year growth rates. Through March, General and Education Fund collections have grown by 26.3% compared with an expected 27.9% for the fiscal year* as a whole. Should this -1.6% differential remain unchanged in the remaining three […]

Legislators Alter the Trajectory of Taxation in Utah

Have you ever laid awake at night wondering ‘when did Utah start collecting sales tax?’, ‘was income tax always earmarked for education?’ or even ‘I wonder if there’s a lag between recessions and income tax collection?’ If you have, you may be a fiscal analyst at heart.* The answer to all these questions and more […]

What Does the American Rescue Plan Act Mean for Utah?

On March 11th, Congress enacted the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) of 2021, the third (and likely final) round of stimulus funding related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Of the total $1.9 trillion in Federal aid, the Office of the Legislative Fiscal Analyst (LFA) estimates that over $8.3 billion will make its way to Utah in […]

Revenue On-Pace through Month Eight

The Utah State Tax Commission released updated revenue collection data today. For the first eight months of fiscal year 2021, General and Education Fund revenue is slightly below our latest point projections, but well within range to hit our target at year-end. Sales tax continues to be stronger than anticipated. Income tax is almost exactly […]

It’s a Wrap! The 2021 General Session Comes to a Close

The Utah Legislature adjourned on the 45th day of a General Session which was groundbreaking in many ways. Utah’s $23.5 billion budget for Fiscal Year 2022 includes $10 billion in spending from the General and Education funds, and nearly $7 billion from Federal funds. During a pandemic, the Utah legislature was able to fund very […]

Revenue Forecasts Improve, though Uncertainty Lingers

On February 19th, the Governor’s Office of Management and Budget (GOMB), Utah Tax Commission, and the Legislative Fiscal Analyst (LFA) released their updated Consensus Revenue Estimates for available one-time and ongoing state fund revenues. These updated estimates from the December 2020 forecasts paint somewhat optimistic expectations for the next 16 months; with FY 2021 revenues […]

Rollercoaster Year Ends on a Positive Note for Revenue Collections

On December 16th, the Tax Commission released the TC-23 revenue summary detailing the first five months of collections to state funds. The Education Fund remains a bit enigmatic, due to inflating factors (including federal stimulus and the income tax timing delay) which leave current year income tax collections trending off the charts. The General Fund […]

Despite Future Uncertainty, Revenues Continue Upward Growth

On Monday, November 16th, the Tax Commission released the TC-23 revenue summary, along with the GOMB/LFA Revenue Snapshot, detailing collections through the first four months of Fiscal Year 2021. Similar to last month’s report, important caveats exist within the income and sales collection figures, and also year-over-year comparisons. October of 2019 was the first month […]

Revenue Through Q1 Boosted by Online Sales and Federal Stimulus

Federal Stimulus Helps FY 2020 End Better than Expected Earlier this month, the Tax Commission released the final TC-23 Revenue Summary for Fiscal Year 2020. The revenue decline to the Education Fund was less severe than previously projected in June, dropping 10.1% compared to the projected 11.6% decline. The General Fund ended the year with […]

Federal Stimulus Appears to Band-Aid Revenues through close of Fiscal Year 2020

The preliminary TC-23 Revenue Summary Report for twelve months of FY 2020 was released by the Tax Commission Thursday, July 16th, along with the Revenue Snapshot report from the Office of the Legislative Fiscal Analyst (LFA) and the Governor’s Office and Management and Budget (GOMB). The TC-23 is preliminary in that it will be modified […]

Pandemic Impacts Take Shape as Fiscal Year Comes to a Close

The Utah Tax Commission released its TC-23 Revenue Summary Wednesday, June 17th, 2020, detailing the actual collections through 11 months of Fiscal Year 2020. As expected, individual income taxes are down, partially due to the shift in timing of income tax collections from FY 2020 to FY 2021, as well as the effects of COVID-19. […]

Utah Capitol in Spring

Income and Fuel Taxes Begin to Show Pandemic Effects

On Tuesday, May 12th, the Tax Commission released their TC-23 Revenue Summary Report for the month of May. Readers may recall that the April TC-23 report was summarizing collections made in March, for sales and wages which took place in February. Because of the lag between collections and reporting, this month’s Revenue Summary is the […]

Collections Hold Steady as the Legislature Prepares to Weather the Storm

The April TC-23 report released by the Tax Commission reports revenue collections to the General, Education, and Transportation Funds are all on target with consensus projections through the first nine months of the fiscal year. The April report shows collections through March, for sales and wages that occurred in February. For the third month straight, […]

Revenues Still On-track, but Don’t Yet Reflect Pandemic’s Impact

Through the end of February, revenues from all taxes were on target, representing an increase of $571 million over FY 2019. Sales and use tax grew by 7% over the previous year, and income tax collections were 8.9% higher than February 2019. However, impacts to revenues from COVID-19 related business closures and layoffs are not […]

Sales Tax Growth Improving, Not Enough to Close Gap in Education and General Funds

On Thursday (Feb. 20th), the Governor’s Office of Management and Budget and the Legislative Fiscal Analyst released their updated 2020 Consensus Revenue Estimates. These estimates, along with the Tax Commission’s TC-23 Report for revenue collections to date, paint a picture of state financial status to date, along with expectations for the next 16 months. Both […]

Revenue Collections in-line with Latest Estimates

First Half of FY 2020 in the Books Reports for December and January show both General and Education Fund revenues coming in on-target, with collections for the first half of the year slightly higher than targets adopted in November. December’s numbers showed General Fund sales-tax collections slightly below the estimate, while January’s revenue performance was […]

Income Tax Continues to Outpace State Sales Tax through Q1

State Revenue Growth Higher than February Projections In the first quarter of the Fiscal Year, income tax grew 11.3% which represented a $135 million dollar increase over the first quarter of last year. Nominally, state and local sales taxes each grew by similar amounts, at $80 million and $81 million, respectively, over the previous fiscal […]

Utah State Capitol with Fall Leaves

Revenue Surplus Sets the Stage for Tax Reform

The year-end numbers are in In Fiscal Year 2019, the revenue surplus to the education fund was $134 million. After adjustments (such as putting money in the rainy-day fund), the available balance is $107 million. The General Fund, supported mostly by the sales tax, ended the year at a deficit of $38 million, which was […]

Strong Income Taxes Bail-out Sales Tax Through 12 Months of FY19

Despite a probable deficit in the General Fund, the Utah State Tax Commission’s latest report on revenue collections for twelve months of fiscal year 2019 suggests that Utah may have a combined General and Education fund revenue surplus of nearly $100 million at year-end. While collections to the sales-tax backed General Fund lag estimates by […]

Strong Income Tax Lifts State Revenue Collections Despite Declining Growth Rates

Combined General and Education Fund revenue collections for the current fiscal year (2019) totaled $6.9 billion through the first eleven months. That represents year-over-year growth of 7.0%, exceeding the current revenue target of 5.7%. This despite a slight decrease in the growth rate compared to April. Collections for the General Fund, however, fall short of […]

Local Governments Address Long-Term Fiscal Stability Amid Population Growth

Utah’s population grew nearly 15% this decade, ranking No. 1 in the nation.1 By 2060, Utah’s population is projected to nearly double. The dramatic growth is a cause for concern for local governments across the state as communities address the fiscal challenges and quality of life for existing residents. The Utah Foundation recently published the […]

Strong Final Payments Highlight April

Earlier this week, the Tax Commission released the TC-23 report for the month of April. Exceeding the current revenue target of 5.7%, General and Education Fund revenue collections totaled $6.4 billion through the first 10 months of FY 2019, representing a year-over-year (YOY) growth of 7.3%. The strong surge in April revenue collections were due […]

Revenue Collections Still Below Target Despite Growth in March

The Tax Commission’s TC-23 report, which captures a snapshot of revenue collections through the first 9 months of fiscal year 2019, shows that Income Tax Withholding is still below Target range at -1.7%. Throughout the year, this funding has been volatile as year-over year (YOY) revenue has gone from a growth rate of 11.2% in […]

Slight Improvement in Revenue Growth through February

The Tax Commission released their monthly revenue report (TC-23) earlier today. Through the first 8 months of FY 2019, according to the report, the revenue sources within the General Fund are on Target. Income Tax Withholding is still below Target range at -5.9%. However, the rate is an indication of increased funding compared to December […]

Income Tax Revenue Below Target Range

The Tax Commission’s TC-23 was released earlier today.  The report, which captures a snapshot of revenue collections through the first 7 months of fiscal year 2019, shows that revenues from most sources are on target or above target.  That’s not the case, though, for the largest revenue source – income tax.  Income tax is down […]

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A Sharp Drop in Gross Paids Headlines the Revenue Picture through 6 Months of 2019

The Tax Commission released their 6th month TC-23 on January 22nd.  We are halfway through the fiscal year.  Through the first 6 months, the state has collected about 45% of the current revenue collection forecast.  Typically, at this point in the year, the state would have collected between 46% and 51% to reach target. The […]

Revenue Growth Slows a Bit Through Five Months

Every month the Tax Commission releases a monthly revenue snapshot. This gives us a chance to compare what’s actually happening this the projected figures.  This past month’s report showed revenue growth slowing slightly to 11.1%.  In October revenue growth was 13.8%.  In November it was 11.2%. Overall, revenue is moving closer towards the current target […]

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State Revenue Remains Strong but Caution Encouraged

The Executive Appropriations Committee adopted revised revenue estimates for FY 2019 and new estimates for FY 2020.  When combined with the year-end surplus from FY 2018 and after adjusting for above trend revenue, available revenue is expected to be $646 million one-time and $675 million ongoing.  Details on available revenue can be found online. Economic […]